The Worst Election Outcome: What to Expect by Oliver DeMille

Published: Wed, 10/24/12


"Empowering Ordinary Citizens to Make an Extraordinary Difference"
 
 
The Worst Election Outcome
What Every American Needs to Realize Before the November 6 Vote
 
 

Maybe, Maybe Not

There is an old story about a man in China whose beloved son falls and breaks his leg.

The neighbors all tell the man how terrible this is, and though the man loves his son very much he responds, "Maybe it is bad. Maybe not."

The next day the army comes through the town and impresses all the able-bodied young men into the army to go fight a war.

The people, quite impressed with the old man's wisdom, come to him and say, "It's a great thing that your son was hurt and won't be killed in the war."

The man responds, "Maybe it is good. Maybe not."

The story goes on, moving back and forth between things that seem one way but turn out to be the opposite.

There are several versions of the story, and some are quite long.

But they all have this theme in common: things aren't always what they seem right now.

Or, as the great political thinker Frederic Bastiat put it, some things are seen while others are unseen.

This is poignant insight concerning the upcoming election.

Just consider the context of this election as seen from the divergent perspectives of the political Left and Right.

Considering Right and Left

The Left sees the election of 2012 as a continued repudiation of the policies of George Bush, the Great Recession and hurtful involvement in two major wars around the world.

It considers the vote on November 6 the final decision on Obamacare, and it generally believes that a swing to the Right--in the White House, Congress, or both--would spell a disaster for the growing role of government and especially for the poor, the sick and the weak.

Many on the Left worry that a Romney presidency would be something akin to letting the Vandals into the city--except that the Wall Street crowd is considered by many to be worse than Vandals.

In contrast, the Right sees this as the biggest Choice election since Ronald Reagan, with the whole future of the American economy and free-market system on the line.

In just the last week, I've spoken with or heard from three successful businessmen who all plan to shut down their businesses if President Obama is reelected.

One said that four more years of continued Obama-style regulation will make his business (which relies on capital gains) entirely unprofitable, and he has everything in place to lay off all his numerous employees and sell off all his assets immediately after the election if it swings Obama's way.

Another said that he'll not only lay off his many employees right away and sell off his assets for whatever he can get--in the event of an Obama victory--but he's taking his considerable cash and holdings abroad right now because he'll only have to pay small penalties, and he expects the penalties and roadblocks to moving money to grow drastically in the months ahead if the Obama Administration has its way.

The impact on the economy of such choices, which I very much doubt are limited to these three businessmen--all from my home state of Utah--could be drastic.

Clearly, the Left and the Right see this election very differently.

No surprise.

But both groups may be missing the really big story of this election.

It's not hard to miss, because it won't happen until after the election.
 

The Thing We Missed...

This week I was referring to the book The Fourth Turning in a conversation with my wife, and it struck me that we are witnessing so many of the things outlined in this excellent book.

I first read it back in the nineties, when there was a lot of gloom and doom about the years just ahead, and numerous predictions that the economy was about to tank and war was on the horizon.

At that time, this book gave me a lot of hope.

It showed that, based on the cycles of history, the times of major economic downturn and other significant national challenge were probably a decade or so in the future.

But today, the same book has dire predictions for our time.

How does this apply to the election of 2012, you might ask.

Answer:

If the cycles of history have us on the path of a major economic downturn and/or other difficult national problems, then the election will set a tone for how we deal with these things.

On the one hand, we want leadership that is optimistic, knows how to overcome major problems, and believes in the power of freedom.

Indeed, in truly difficult eras of history, it is the people of a nation rather than its politicians who determine whether we turn lemons into lemonade or meekly accept the prognosis of the experts that decline is here to stay.

Remember how much the national feeling shifted with a simple change from Carter to Reagan?

So, yes, we need an election outcome that puts freedom back into the American equation.

But there is more.

If we are really going into a time of serious crises and challenges--and who reading the daily news doesn't think this change could be coming?--then it won't be who gets elected that matters most.

The big thing will be how the regular people respond, and how we use initiative, resiliency, tenacity and entrepreneurialism to overcome our national challenges.

All of this puts the election front and center.

It also makes it a bit of a paradox.

There are at least two schools of thought on this.

One says that leaders and their choices determine whether or not we will see a revitalized economy or face another major downturn, further downgrading of the nation's credit rating, increased unemployment, higher inflation, decreased or negative growth, etc.

The other argues that the cycles of history are very powerful, and that Congress and Presidents can't really do much to stop a depression or other crises.

If the latter view turns out to be true, we could see significant economic problems ahead no matter how the election ends on November 6.
 

This turns the whole thing on its head, because if President Obama is reelected and his big-government policies are followed by depression, the ideas of free market and free enterprise will be rekindled and gain new credibility.

If Romney wins and his more free-market approach is followed by a depression or major recession (right on the heels of the economic woes in the Bush years), support for free markets could be set back for many decades.

To the Point

I'm not suggesting that anyone change their vote, but what I am saying is very important: Whatever happens on election night, the election isn't the big event.

What occurs in the months and first year after November 6 is the real story--and it will remake America, one way or another.

Once the election is over is the time to get serious about making your positive influence felt in Washington and your local and state governments.

The rubber is going to hit the road on the future of the economy--in the months after the election.

That's when your influence as a citizen will be most needed.

What is your plan right now to have an impact on the future of freedom in the beginning half of 2013?

If you don't have one yet, it's time to get started.

The worst outcome of the 2012 election will be if the nation votes, celebrates or cries when the results are announced, and then goes back to normal life not realizing that in the months just ahead we're going to determine America's future. 

Freedom or ... not freedom.

The election is the beginning of this year's challenge, not the end!

Start making your plans now if you care about freedom.

 

*******************

Oliver DeMille is the founder and former president of George Wythe University, a co-founder of the Center for Social Leadership, and a co-creator of TJEd.
 
 
Oliver is dedicated to promoting freedom through leadership education. He and his wife Rachel are raising their eight children in Cedar City, Utah.

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