The Achilles of 2016 by Oliver DeMille
Published: Wed, 07/16/14
Setting the Stage
When Barack Obama was elected in 2008, Republicans went into retreat. Pundits wondered if they'd ever recover, especially after the reversals they'd already experienced in the election of 2006. Some spoke in lasting terms, suggesting that Republicans had become a regional party at best.
Then came the historic Republican victory of 2010, a midterm election that put the GOP in charge of the House and gave it major gains in the Senate. It seemed that a reversal had come at last. A number of conservatives predicted continued victories in the 2012 election and projected that President Obama's days in the White House were numbered.
With the opposition party gaining momentum in the months leading up to the midterm election of 2014, a number of politicos are forecasting another Republican sweep--some on a major scale that wins control of the entire Congress, others of a smaller but still respectable victory Few, even on the Left, believe that 2014 will go to the Democrats.
The Common Wisdom
Thoughts about the 2016 election seem to split by geography. Talk to people in most red states, and they're sure Romney or some other Republican will win this time. In blue states, the opposite is true, and Hillary Clinton is extremely popular. The mainstream media overwhelmingly leans in the direction of "Hillary is the clear front runner," and most of the alternative (largely conservative) media is hesitant to pick a winner this early--meaning it too thinks Hillary has a lead.