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Nations aren't the only major actors on the world stage.
Religions have long been significant, and corporations are becoming increasing
powerful global entities.
Multi-national corporations (MNCs) have their own
views of where governments are taking us and of how likely governments are to
lead humanity into the next century.
There are at least four major views of how governments are
likely to lead the world in the decades ahead and what we can expect of the 2st
Century:
1. Another U.S. Century
In this view nations will
project low trust, high fear and a desire for security into a world with a
focus on high government regulation and coercion (at home and abroad). Local
governments and international entities will be weak and national governments
will continue to lead. Business will have little power.
2. A China Century
Also called a European Union
Century. In this option nations will also project low trust, high fear and a
desire for security, but with a focus on regional security alliances. Local
governments will be strong, national governments will be weakened and regional
alliances of nations will dominate. Business will have moderate power.
3. A Corporate Century
In this alternative nations
will project low trust, high fear and a desire for security in order to justify
their expense and power, but many big nations will break into smaller states
(following the trend of the Soviet break-up) and major corporations will
increase in influence economically and politically. Local, national and
international governmental entities will lose power. Business will have great
power.
4. A Tribal Century
In this development nations
will have low trust and high fear, and security concerns will become more local
or provincial. People will turn to tribes (ethnic, religious, geographical or
even economic) for security. Local and provincial governments will increase in
power while national and international governance entities will lose power.
Business will gain power in some locales and lose it in others.
All four possibilities are in embryo
right now, and any one of them could arise from our current trends.
It remains
to be seen which of these, or some other model, will prove more popular. For
example, how will world Islam or the Green movement play into this?
Unfortunately, this entire debate
is taking place almost exclusively among elites and their agents.
Which means,
simply, that the era of widespread freedom and prosperity for the regular
people is over--unless something changes.
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Social Leader Daily by Oliver DeMille
